Top Watches for 9/25/26

Data as of Thu Sep 24, 6:35 PM ET

Not a financial advisor. For education only — not financial advice.

$FSLY (Fastly) last traded at $27.56 in extended hours (regular-session close $26.67) (-7.05% vs the prior close). The market has closed for the day (after-hours), so these are the last session's prices (read Thu Sep 24, 6:35 PM ET).

LONG · conviction 71/100 (High). The site's scanner ranks this daily 3-1 FORMING (3-1-?) setup #16 of 338 right now, and it reads long because the setup names no direction, so it leans to the nearer trigger: price is closer to the long trigger (28.15) than the short one (26.19). The daily trend runs the other way, so this is a counter-trend idea. Keep the position small. The score ranks setup quality; it is not a forecast. Backing: 9 real signals for, 5 against (counted under Confluence and Watch-outs).

The setup

Setup: 3-1 FORMING (3-1-?) on the daily chart. As Stratify's lesson "The inside bar, and the 3-1-2" puts it: Compression is not a direction — it is a question with two answers.

Why this conviction

• Setup type: 3-1 FORMING (3-1-?) carries +26 points on the site's tier list.
• Volume: relative volume 2.43x normal (live) adds +45 (capped at 45).
• The live volume gate is passing now: +6.
• Price action: the last print ($27.56) is 2.14% from the trigger ($28.15), -6.

That adds up to 71/100. These are display weights that rank setups against each other, not a win rate.

Confluence

Backing: 9 real signals for this long from 6 independent sources, 5 against (the ones against are listed under Watch-outs). Only evidence that lines up behind the plan is counted; the setup's own name, its score and its structure target are the plan itself, not backing for it.

• Chart: The monthly trend is up.
• Chart: History on this chart: from a spot like this the trend reversed 62% of the time (29 cases).
• Chart: Price ($27.56) is above last week's high (PWH $25.75): it has broken out of last week's range.
• Chart: Price ($27.56) is above this month's open ($22.60, 21.9% higher).
• Volume: volume is 2.43x normal (RVOL), so more people are behind the move.
• GEX: on the Sep 25 expiry (read Sep 24, 6:35 PM ET), price is above the gamma flip ($20.55), where hedging steadies moves.
• Flow: about $804K was paid at the ask for the Oct 2 $27.50 call ($706K marked at today's price).
• Dark pool: the Sep 23 off-exchange average price $28.60 (15.0M shares) sits between the trigger and the target, where price tends to react.
• Target: the one-session options-implied move is about +/-5.4% (from the Sep 25 at-the-money straddle); scaled by the square root of time to the estimated 3-session hold that is about +/-9.4%, and the target is 13.9% away - within 1.5x of the priced-in move, so it is a realistic distance.

Plan facts (not counted):

• The trigger $28.15 sits at the previous day high (PDH $28.15) - a level the market already respects. On a daily setup that is by construction, so it is not counted as backing.
• The stop $26.19 sits at the previous day low (PDL $26.19) - a level the market already respects. On a daily setup that is by construction, so it is not counted as backing.

The plan

Wait for price to trade above $28.15. Stop at $26.19 ($1.96 of risk per share). Target $32.07 (+13.9%, about 2.0 to 1). The stop is 7.0% from the trigger - a wide stop, so a beginner would size the position smaller. Checkpoints on the way: $30.48 and $31.27.

Until the trigger prints, nothing is confirmed. The stop is where the idea is wrong; if price gets there, the plan is over. This is a daily setup.

Estimated hold: about 3 trading days after the trigger prints (typically 2 to 5 trading days). This plan's target is 1.4 ATRs from the trigger. That is measured, not a forecast: it is the middle of what 676 past daily 3-1 FORMING (3-1-?) setups on the long side took whose target sat 1.2 to 1.6 ATRs away (this one is 1.4), so it moves with the target's distance at today's ATR. Price is 0.2 ATR from the trigger now; setups that began that close to theirs printed it within about 1 trading day. Once triggered, half of the ones that reached the target did so within 3 trading days, but only 29% of the triggered setups got there at all. If it has not paid by about 7 trading days after the trigger, treat the idea as stale.

Prior day and prior week levels

The extremes of the previous session and week are levels the market already respects. Only the ones this plan is built on are shown - on a daily setup the trigger and stop are the last session's low and high by construction.

• PDH $28.15 - the high of the last completed session; the trigger ($28.15) sits at it.
• PDL $26.19 - the low of the last completed session; the stop ($26.19) sits at it.

Options positioning (GEX)

• Expiry used: Sep 25 (1 day out), read Sep 24, 6:35 PM ET; every level below is recomputed from that expiry's own 50 strikes - of the expiries read, its gamma map and options flow back the long idea most (score +0; also read: Oct 2 (+0)).
• Backs the plan: Price is above the gamma flip ($20.55), where hedging steadies moves.
• Caution: The call wall $30 sits between the trigger and the target as a ceiling.

Dark pool levels

Dark pools are trades matched away from the public exchanges. Each level is the average price (volume-weighted) of one session's off-exchange volume; only the levels that sit where they help this trade are shown.

• Sep 23 - $28.60: 15.0M shares off-exchange (51% of that session's volume), +3.8% from price.

Options flow

Only big unusual prints count: a call bought at the ask (never sold at the bid), with at least $250K actually paid at the fills, volume at least 3x the open interest, expiring within 3 months and not deep in the money - searched across every expiry the flow engine holds for this ticker, not just one. Strikes between the trigger and the target come first, then the largest amount paid, then the nearer expiry; a second contract is shown only if at least a quarter of the first. A print whose fills cannot be read is not shown - its size would be a guess.

• About $804K was paid, bought at the ask, for the $27.50 call expiring Oct 2 (8 days), at an average fill of $1.54, with 94% of the contracts filling at the ask ($706K marked at today's price), 29.5x open interest (opening), 0.2% in the money.
• About $698K was paid, bought at the ask, for the $26.00 call expiring Oct 16 (22 days), at an average fill of $3.20, with 99% of the contracts filling at the ask ($634K marked at today's price), 8.0x open interest (sweep, opening), 5.7% in the money.

That backs the long idea: a call bought at the ask is usually a bet that the stock rises. One print cannot show intent, so treat it as one input, not a guarantee.

Repeated sweeps - a call the site's tape marked as swept at least 3 times at the ask in the last session (a sweep is one order filled across several exchanges at once, as the tape tags it). Counted as flow only when the combined amount paid clears the same $250K bar.

No contract was swept repeatedly at the ask in the last session.

For context, calls are 91% of the last session's options volume in the Sep 25 expiry (put/call ratio 0.10).

Watch-outs

• The daily trend is down (since Sep 1): lower highs and lower lows. That argues against the bias.
• The weekly trend is down. That argues against the bias.
• This is a counter-trend idea: the daily trend is down, so it needs a clean trigger and a tight stop.
• The call wall ($30.00) sits between the trigger and the target, so expect price to slow or react there.
• An OTE zone runs against this idea ($27.50 to $28.93, a bearish pullback area above price).
• Structure: the level that would confirm the turn is $30.69.
• The target ($32.07) is a projection (projected 2R (no structure in 60 bars)) rather than a price the market has already traded, so it has less behind it than a structure target.
• A live catalyst points the other way: "Fastly’s 14% AI spike was a mirage; Here’s the edge stock Citi says you should own" (Sep 24) - the site reads it bearish (price down 6.2% today). It argues against this plan.
• The idea is wrong if price trades below $26.19.

Beginner notes

• Long / short: Long means buying, to profit if price rises. Short means selling first, to profit if price falls.
• Conviction score: The site's 0 to 100 ranking of how good a setup looks right now: the kind of setup, how much volume is behind it, whether the daily and weekly agree, and how close price is to the trigger. 70 and up is high, 45 to 69 medium, under 45 low. It ranks setups against each other; it is not a forecast or a win rate.
• RVOL (relative volume): A day's volume compared with the stock's normal. 1.0x is normal, 2.0x is double.
• Options-implied move: How far the options market prices the stock to move in one session, worked out from the nearest expiry's at-the-money straddle. To compare it with a target reached over several sessions it is scaled by the square root of time (four sessions = twice the one-session move). It is a typical range, not a limit - but a target far beyond it needs more than the usual move.
• Trigger: The price that has to trade before the idea is live. Until it prints, nothing is confirmed.
• Stop: The price where the idea is wrong. You leave there so a bad guess stays small.
• Target: Where the plan takes profit.
• R:R (reward-to-risk): How much the plan aims to make for every $1 it risks. 2 to 1 means $2 of target for $1 of stop.
• Hold time: How long a trade stays open: from the moment the trigger prints until the target or the stop is reached. The estimate is the middle of what similar past setups took - half were quicker, half slower - so it is a typical, not a promise.
• ATR (average true range): The typical size of one candle on this timeframe. A target 3 ATRs away needs roughly three candles' worth of movement, which is why distance decides how long a hold takes.
• PDH / PDL / PWH / PWL: The previous day's high and low, and the previous week's high and low. Traders watch them because price often stalls, turns or breaks out at these prior extremes.
• GEX (gamma exposure): How much options dealers must buy or sell as price moves. Where it is large, price tends to stall or slow down.
• Call wall: The strike with the most call positioning above price. It often acts like a ceiling.
• Gamma flip: The price where dealer hedging changes character. Above it, hedging tends to calm price; below it, it can speed moves up.
• Dark pool level: A price where a lot of shares traded away from the public exchanges. Each level here is that session's volume-weighted average off-exchange price. Big off-exchange prints often act as support or resistance.
• Put/call ratio: Puts traded divided by calls traded. Under 1.0 means more calls than puts.
• Volume vs open interest: Open interest is how many contracts already exist. When today's volume is several times that, most of it is new positioning, which is why it counts as unusual.
• Block / sweep / opening: A block is one very large order. A sweep is an order split across exchanges to fill fast. Opening means it adds a new position rather than closing an old one.
• OTE (optimal trade entry): The zone 62% to 79% of the way back through the last swing, where pullbacks often stall. It only counts with extra confirmation.
• BOS / CHoCH: A break of structure (BOS) is a close through the last swing in the trend's direction, so the trend continues. A change of character (CHoCH) is a close through the protective level against it, so the trend flips.

Data as of Thu Sep 24, 6:40 PM ET

Not a financial advisor. For education only — not financial advice.

$RGTI (Rigetti Computing) last traded at $16.42 in extended hours (regular-session close $16.50) (+2.59% vs the prior close). The market has closed for the day (after-hours), so these are the last session's prices (read Thu Sep 24, 6:40 PM ET).

LONG · conviction 74/100 (High). The site's scanner ranks this daily 3-BAR → FAILED 2 DOWN (3→F2D) setup #10 of 339 right now (it is on the top-10 list), and it reads long because the setup's own name reads long. The daily trend runs the other way, so this is a counter-trend idea. Keep the position small. The score ranks setup quality; it is not a forecast. Backing: 8 real signals for, 4 against (counted under Confluence and Watch-outs).

The setup

Setup: 3-BAR → FAILED 2 DOWN (3→F2D) on the daily chart. As Stratify's lesson "The Failed 2 — the trap" puts it: Price takes the level, then closes back through it. The chasers are underwater. The setup is a Failed 2 Down: price broke below the prior low, then closed back inside. The sellers who chased it are trapped, which is the bullish read.

Why this conviction

• Setup type: 3-BAR → FAILED 2 DOWN (3→F2D) carries +30 points on the site's tier list.
• Volume: relative volume 1.15x normal (live) adds +34 (capped at 45).
• The live volume gate is passing now: +6.
• Price action: the last print ($16.42) is 1.10% from the trigger ($16.60), +3.

That adds up to 74/100. These are display weights that rank setups against each other, not a win rate.

Confluence

Backing: 8 real signals for this long from 5 independent sources, 4 against (the ones against are listed under Watch-outs). Only evidence that lines up behind the plan is counted; the setup's own name, its score and its structure target are the plan itself, not backing for it.

• Chart: The monthly trend is up.
• Chart: Price ($16.42) is above last week's high (PWH $16.32): it has broken out of last week's range.
• Chart: Price ($16.42) is above this month's open ($15.02, 9.3% higher).
• Volume: volume is 1.15x normal (RVOL) - at or above its normal.
• GEX: on the Sep 25 expiry (read Sep 24, 6:40 PM ET), the magnet $17 sits between the trigger and the target, where hedging tends to pull price.
• GEX: on the Sep 25 expiry (read Sep 24, 6:40 PM ET), price is above the gamma flip ($15.82), where hedging steadies moves.
• Flow: about $404K was paid at the ask for the Sep 25 $15.00 call ($400K marked at today's price).
• Dark pool: the Sep 23 off-exchange average price $16.39 (13.1M shares) sits just behind the trigger, where it can act as support.

Plan facts (not counted):

• The trigger $16.60 sits at the previous day high (PDH $16.60) - a level the market already respects. On a daily setup that is by construction, so it is not counted as backing.
• The stop $15.60 sits at the previous day low (PDL $15.60) - a level the market already respects. On a daily setup that is by construction, so it is not counted as backing.
• The target $19.36 is the 40 candle structure - a price the market has already traded, not a projection.

The plan

Wait for price to trade above $16.60. Stop at $15.60 ($1.00 of risk per share). Target $19.36 (+16.6%, about 2.8 to 1). The stop is 6.0% from the trigger - a wide stop, so a beginner would size the position smaller. Checkpoints on the way: $17.05 and $17.66.

Until the trigger prints, nothing is confirmed. The stop is where the idea is wrong; if price gets there, the plan is over. This is a daily setup.

Estimated hold: about 7 trading days after the trigger prints (typically 4 to 11 trading days). This plan's target is 2.9 ATRs from the trigger. That is measured, not a forecast: it is the middle of what 291 past daily 3-BAR → FAILED 2 DOWN (3→F2D) setups on the long side took whose target sat 2.4 to 3.3 ATRs away (this one is 2.9), so it moves with the target's distance at today's ATR. Price is 0.2 ATR from the trigger now; setups that began that close to theirs printed it within about 1 trading day. Once triggered, half of the ones that reached the target did so within 7 trading days, but only 30% of the triggered setups got there at all. If it has not paid by about 15 trading days after the trigger, treat the idea as stale.

Prior day and prior week levels

The extremes of the previous session and week are levels the market already respects. Only the ones this plan is built on are shown - on a daily setup the trigger and stop are the last session's low and high by construction.

• PDH $16.60 - the high of the last completed session; the trigger ($16.60) sits at it.
• PDL $15.60 - the low of the last completed session; the stop ($15.60) sits at it.

Options positioning (GEX)

• Expiry used: Sep 25 (1 day out), read Sep 24, 6:40 PM ET; every level below is recomputed from that expiry's own 33 strikes - of the expiries read, its gamma map and options flow back the long idea most (score +2; also read: Oct 2 (+1)).
• Backs the plan: The magnet $17 sits between the trigger and the target, where hedging tends to pull price.
• Backs the plan: Price is above the gamma flip ($15.82), where hedging steadies moves.
• Caution: The call wall $17 sits between the trigger and the target as a ceiling.

Dark pool levels

Dark pools are trades matched away from the public exchanges. Each level is the average price (volume-weighted) of one session's off-exchange volume; only the levels that sit where they help this trade are shown.

• Sep 23 - $16.39: 13.1M shares off-exchange (52% of that session's volume), -0.2% from price.

Options flow

Only big unusual prints count: a call bought at the ask (never sold at the bid), with at least $250K actually paid at the fills, volume at least 3x the open interest, expiring within 3 months and not deep in the money - searched across every expiry the flow engine holds for this ticker, not just one. Strikes between the trigger and the target come first, then the largest amount paid, then the nearer expiry; a second contract is shown only if at least a quarter of the first. A print whose fills cannot be read is not shown - its size would be a guess.

• About $404K was paid, bought at the ask, for the $15.00 call expiring Sep 25 (1 day), at an average fill of $1.03, with 88% of the contracts filling at the ask ($400K marked at today's price), 10.8x open interest (sweep, split, block, opening), 8.6% in the money.

That backs the long idea: a call bought at the ask is usually a bet that the stock rises. One print cannot show intent, so treat it as one input, not a guarantee.

Repeated sweeps - a call the site's tape marked as swept at least 3 times at the ask in the last session (a sweep is one order filled across several exchanges at once, as the tape tags it). Counted as flow only when the combined amount paid clears the same $250K bar.

No contract was swept repeatedly at the ask in the last session. (1 contract page read.)

For context, calls are 90% of the last session's options volume in the Sep 25 expiry (put/call ratio 0.12).

Watch-outs

• The daily trend is down (since Jul 13): lower highs and lower lows. That argues against the bias.
• The weekly trend is down. That argues against the bias.
• This is a counter-trend idea: the daily trend is down, so it needs a clean trigger and a tight stop.
• The call wall ($17.00) sits between the trigger and the target, so expect price to slow or react there.
• On this chart, from a spot like this, the trend reversed 43% of the time (28 cases) - close to a coin flip, so respect the stop.
• Structure: the level that would confirm the turn is $19.36.
• The one-session options-implied move is about +/-3.4% (from the Sep 25 at-the-money straddle); scaled by the square root of time to the estimated 7-session hold that is about +/-9.1%, but the target is 16.6% away (1.8x the priced-in move): a stretch that needs more than the usual move.
• The idea is wrong if price trades below $15.60.

Beginner notes

• Long / short: Long means buying, to profit if price rises. Short means selling first, to profit if price falls.
• Conviction score: The site's 0 to 100 ranking of how good a setup looks right now: the kind of setup, how much volume is behind it, whether the daily and weekly agree, and how close price is to the trigger. 70 and up is high, 45 to 69 medium, under 45 low. It ranks setups against each other; it is not a forecast or a win rate.
• RVOL (relative volume): A day's volume compared with the stock's normal. 1.0x is normal, 2.0x is double.
• Options-implied move: How far the options market prices the stock to move in one session, worked out from the nearest expiry's at-the-money straddle. To compare it with a target reached over several sessions it is scaled by the square root of time (four sessions = twice the one-session move). It is a typical range, not a limit - but a target far beyond it needs more than the usual move.
• Trigger: The price that has to trade before the idea is live. Until it prints, nothing is confirmed.
• Stop: The price where the idea is wrong. You leave there so a bad guess stays small.
• Target: Where the plan takes profit.
• R:R (reward-to-risk): How much the plan aims to make for every $1 it risks. 2 to 1 means $2 of target for $1 of stop.
• Hold time: How long a trade stays open: from the moment the trigger prints until the target or the stop is reached. The estimate is the middle of what similar past setups took - half were quicker, half slower - so it is a typical, not a promise.
• ATR (average true range): The typical size of one candle on this timeframe. A target 3 ATRs away needs roughly three candles' worth of movement, which is why distance decides how long a hold takes.
• PDH / PDL / PWH / PWL: The previous day's high and low, and the previous week's high and low. Traders watch them because price often stalls, turns or breaks out at these prior extremes.
• GEX (gamma exposure): How much options dealers must buy or sell as price moves. Where it is large, price tends to stall or slow down.
• Call wall: The strike with the most call positioning above price. It often acts like a ceiling.
• Gamma flip: The price where dealer hedging changes character. Above it, hedging tends to calm price; below it, it can speed moves up.
• Largest net positive GEX: The strike with the most positive gamma. Dealer hedging there leans against moves, so price tends to stick or get pulled toward it.
• Dark pool level: A price where a lot of shares traded away from the public exchanges. Each level here is that session's volume-weighted average off-exchange price. Big off-exchange prints often act as support or resistance.
• Put/call ratio: Puts traded divided by calls traded. Under 1.0 means more calls than puts.
• Volume vs open interest: Open interest is how many contracts already exist. When today's volume is several times that, most of it is new positioning, which is why it counts as unusual.
• Block / sweep / opening: A block is one very large order. A sweep is an order split across exchanges to fill fast. Opening means it adds a new position rather than closing an old one.
• BOS / CHoCH: A break of structure (BOS) is a close through the last swing in the trend's direction, so the trend continues. A change of character (CHoCH) is a close through the protective level against it, so the trend flips.