Top Watches for 9/23/26

SStratify ·Posted Tue, Sep 22 Past

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Not a financial advisor. For education only — not financial advice.

Top Watches for 9/23/26 · Setup 1 of 1

$INTC — Long bias · Daily

high conviction

Data as of Tue Sep 22, 6:42 PM ET

Not a financial advisor. For education only — not financial advice.

Last price$123.79

Conviction70/100 (high) - #17 of 327

Triggerover $124.09

Stop$120.07

Checkpoint 1$128.11

Checkpoint 2$132.13

Target$136.15 (3.0R)

Est. holdabout 4 trading days (2 to 6)

PDH$124.09

PDL$120.07

Put wall$120.00

Largest +GEX$128.00

$INTC (Intel) last traded at $123.79 (+1.65% vs the prior close). The market has closed for the day (after-hours), so these are the last session's prices (read Tue Sep 22, 6:42 PM ET).

LONG · conviction 70/100 (High). The site's scanner ranks this daily 2-1 FORMING (2-1-?) setup #17 of 327 right now, and it reads long because the setup names no direction, so it leans to the nearer trigger: price is closer to the long trigger (124.09) than the short one (120.07). Evidence check: 3 for, 0 against - the chart's evidence backs the plan. The score ranks setup quality; it is not a forecast.

Plan: over $124.09 trigger, $120.07 stop, $136.15 target (3.0R). The trigger and stop sit on the daily candle wicks that define them; the target has no matching wick on this chart.

The setup

Setup: 2-1 FORMING (2-1-?) on the daily chart. As Stratify's lesson "The 2-1-2, both ways" puts it: A push, a coil, then a break — with or against what came before.

Why this conviction

Setup type: 2-1 FORMING (2-1-?) carries +22 points on the site's tier list.
Volume: relative volume 1.05x normal (live) adds +32 (capped at 45).
The live volume gate is passing now: +6.
Price action: price is 0.24% from the trigger, +11.

That adds up to 70/100. These are display weights that rank setups against each other, not a win rate.

Confluence

12 things line up behind this long, from 6 independent sources. Anything that did not line up is left out of this thesis.

Setup: the site ranks this daily 2-1 FORMING (2-1-?) setup #17 of 327 with a conviction score of 70/100.
Chart: Price ($123.79) is above last week's high (PWH $111.37): it has broken out of last week's range.
Chart: Price ($123.79) is above this month's open ($86.84, 42.5% higher).
GEX: on the Sep 23 expiry, the magnet $128 sits between the trigger and the target, where hedging tends to pull price.
GEX: on the Sep 23 expiry, the put wall $120 sits just under the trigger as a floor.
Flow: on the Sep 23 expiry, calls are 65% of that expiry's volume.
Target: At the target: 6,222 calls traded today at strikes within 3% of it (4% of that expiry's call volume) - options money is positioned for price to reach about the target.
Target: At the target: $2.4M of calls at the $140 strike (expiring 2026-10-09) was bought at the ask - money is positioned for price to reach about the target.
Flow: a $2.7M call was bought at the ask (Sep 23 expiry, $125.00 strike).
Levels: the trigger ($124.09) is the previous day high (PDH) - a level the market already respects.
Levels: the stop ($120.07) is the previous day low (PDL) - a level the market already respects.
Target: the target $136.15 is the 60 candle structure - a price the market has already traded, not a projection.

The plan

Wait for price to trade above $124.09. Stop at $120.07 ($4.02 of risk per share). Target $136.15 (+9.7%, about 3.0 to 1). The stop is 3.2% from the trigger. Checkpoints on the way: $128.11 and $132.13.

Until the trigger prints, nothing is confirmed. The stop is where the idea is wrong; if price gets there, the plan is over. This is a daily setup.

Estimated hold: about 4 trading days after the trigger prints (typically 2 to 6 trading days). This plan's target is 1.8 ATRs from the trigger. That is measured, not a forecast: it is the middle of what 4,579 past daily 2-1 FORMING (2-1-?) setups on the long side took whose target sat 1.6 to 2.1 ATRs away (this one is 1.8), so it moves with the target's distance at today's ATR. Price is already at the trigger, so the clock is effectively running. Once triggered, half of the ones that reached the target did so within 4 trading days, but only 27% of the triggered setups got there at all. If it has not paid by about 10 trading days after the trigger, treat the idea as stale.

Prior day and prior week levels

The extremes of the previous session and week are levels the market already respects. Only the ones this plan is built on are shown.

PDH $124.09 - the high of the last completed session; the trigger ($124.09) sits at it.
PDL $120.07 - the low of the last completed session; the stop ($120.07) sits at it.

Options positioning (GEX)

Drawn from the site's live GEX data for $INTC: strikes down the side, expirations across the top; green cells are positive gamma, red negative; the highlighted column is the Sep 23 expiry that matches

Expiry used: Sep 23 (1 day out) - of the expiries read, its gamma map and options flow back the long idea most (score +10; also read: Sep 25 (+7), Oct 2 (+5)).
Backs the plan: The magnet $128 sits between the trigger and the target, where hedging tends to pull price.
Backs the plan: The put wall $120 sits just under the trigger as a floor.
Caution: The call wall $128 sits between the trigger and the target as a ceiling.

Options flow

$INTC $125 call expiring Sep 23: $2.7M marked now, bought at the ask, 8.1x open interest. Drawn from the site's live contract data; side is where the trade printed against the quote, not a prediction.

Instead of listing every big print, this shows only the contract (or two) that backs the long idea. To qualify it has to be one of the highly unusual prints (expiring within 3 months, volume at least 3x open interest, at least $250K in premium; 60 contracts checked), and be a call bought at the ask (never sold at the bid), worth at least $1M of premium and not deep in the money. Of those, the ones struck between this plan's trigger and its target come first (they back this move), then the ones expiring on the same day as the gamma read above (Sep 23), then the closest expiry, then the largest; if nothing clears that bar, the closest largest ask that backs the idea is used.

$2.7M marked at today's price - $125.00 call expiring Sep 23 (1 day), bought at the ask, 8x open interest (opening), 1.0% out of the money. About $1.9M was actually paid, at an average fill of $0.95, with 80% of the contracts filling at the ask.

That backs the long idea: a call bought at the ask is usually a bet that the stock rises. One print cannot show intent, so treat it as one input, not a guarantee.

For context, calls are 65% of the last session's options volume in the Sep 23 expiry (put/call ratio 0.53).

Watch-outs

The call wall ($128.00) sits between the trigger and the target, so expect price to slow or react there.
The target is 9.7% away but options price only about +/-2.8% by Sep 23 (3.5x the priced-in move): a stretch that needs more than the usual move.
The largest unusual print points the other way: $2.4M in $140.00 puts expiring Oct 23, bought at the ask - the flow is not one-sided.
The idea is wrong if price trades below $120.07.

Beginner notes

Long / short: Long means buying, to profit if price rises. Short means selling first, to profit if price falls.
Conviction score: The site's 0 to 100 ranking of how good a setup looks right now: the kind of setup, how much volume is behind it, whether the daily and weekly agree, and how close price is to the trigger. 70 and up is high, 45 to 69 medium, under 45 low. It ranks setups against each other; it is not a forecast or a win rate.
Options-implied move: How far the options market prices the stock to move by an expiry, worked out from the at-the-money straddle. It is a typical range, not a limit - but a target far beyond it needs more than the usual move.
Trigger: The price that has to trade before the idea is live. Until it prints, nothing is confirmed.
Stop: The price where the idea is wrong. You leave there so a bad guess stays small.
Target: Where the plan takes profit.
R:R (reward-to-risk): How much the plan aims to make for every $1 it risks. 2 to 1 means $2 of target for $1 of stop.
Hold time: How long a trade stays open: from the moment the trigger prints until the target or the stop is reached. The estimate is the middle of what similar past setups took - half were quicker, half slower - so it is a typical, not a promise.
ATR (average true range): The typical size of one candle on this timeframe. A target 3 ATRs away needs roughly three candles' worth of movement, which is why distance decides how long a hold takes.
PDH / PDL / PWH / PWL: The previous day's high and low, and the previous week's high and low. Traders watch them because price often stalls, turns or breaks out at these prior extremes.
GEX (gamma exposure): How much options dealers must buy or sell as price moves. Where it is large, price tends to stall or slow down.
Call wall: The strike with the most call positioning above price. It often acts like a ceiling.
Largest net positive GEX: The strike with the most positive gamma. Dealer hedging there leans against moves, so price tends to stick or get pulled toward it.
Put/call ratio: Puts traded divided by calls traded. Under 1.0 means more calls than puts.
Volume vs open interest: Open interest is how many contracts already exist. When today's volume is several times that, most of it is new positioning, which is why it counts as unusual.
Block / sweep / opening: A block is one very large order. A sweep is an order split across exchanges to fill fast. Opening means it adds a new position rather than closing an old one.

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