Top Watches for 9/21/26
Not a financial advisor. For education only — not financial advice.
Target $236.54
Stop $208.93
Target $90.36
Stop $87.52
$NVDA — Long bias · Weekly
high convictionData as of Sun Sep 20, 9:30 PM ET
Not a financial advisor. For education only — not financial advice.
$NVDA (NVIDIA) last traded at $222.53 (+1.45% vs the prior close). The market is closed for the weekend, so these are the last session's prices (read Sun Sep 20, 9:30 PM ET).
Bias: LONG (looking to buy) - the data leans toward a move up. Evidence count: 7 for, 1 against, conviction high. That counts the evidence; it is not a forecast.
The setup
Setup: INSIDE → FAILED 2 DOWN (1→F2D) on the weekly chart. As Stratify's lesson "The Failed 2 — the trap" puts it: Price takes the level, then closes back through it. The chasers are underwater.
Why long
- The setup is a Failed 2 Down: price broke below the prior low, then closed back inside. The sellers who chased it are trapped, which is the bullish read.
- The weekly trend is up (since Apr 13): higher highs and higher lows.
- The monthly trend is up.
- Price ($222.53) is above this month's open ($216.75, 2.7% higher).
- Calls are 73% of options volume in the nearest expiry (Sep 21).
- Volume is 1.55x normal (RVOL), so more people are behind the moves.
The plan
Wait for price to trade above $222.73. Stop at $208.93 ($13.80 of risk per share). Target $236.54 (+6.2%, about 1.0 to 1). The stop is 6.2% from the trigger - a wide stop, so a beginner would size the position smaller.
Until the trigger prints, nothing is confirmed. The stop is where the idea is wrong; if price gets there, the plan is over. This is a weekly setup, so expect it to play out over the coming week or two.
Prior day and prior week levels
These are the extremes of the previous session and the previous week. Price often stalls, turns or breaks out at them.
- PDH $222.73 - the high of the last completed session (Sep 18), +0.1% from price.
- PDL $218.03 - the low of that session, -2.0% from price.
- PWH $222.73 - the high of the last completed week (the week of Sep 14 to Sep 18), +0.1% from price.
- PWL $208.93 - the low of that week, -6.1% from price.
Price ($222.53) is inside the previous day's range and inside last week's range. In this plan, the trigger ($222.73) sits at PDH and PWH, and the stop ($208.93) sits at PWL.
Options positioning (GEX)
- Expiry shown: Sep 25 (5 days out) - the options expiry that matches a weekly setup.
- Largest net positive: $225.00 ($28.1M of gamma, +1.1% from price) - hedging here leans against moves, so price tends to stick or be pulled toward it.
- Largest net negative: $210.00 (-$8.4M of gamma, -5.6% from price) - hedging here pushes moves along, so price can speed up through it.
- Call wall $225.00 (+1.1% from price) - often a ceiling.
- Put wall $210.00 (-5.6% from price) - often a floor.
- Gamma flip $220.70 - price is above it, so hedging tends to calm price and swings are smaller.
Dark pool levels
Dark pools are trades matched away from the public exchanges. Each level below is the average price (volume-weighted) of that session's off-exchange volume; heavy prints there often act as support or resistance.
- Sep 18 - $219.77: 38.9M shares off-exchange (40% of that session's volume), -1.2% from price.
- Sep 17 - $218.94: 36.3M shares off-exchange (50% of that session's volume), -1.6% from price.
- Sep 16 - $214.76: 40.1M shares off-exchange (51% of that session's volume), -3.5% from price.
- Sep 15 - $212.47: 32.5M shares off-exchange (49% of that session's volume), -4.5% from price.
- Sep 14 - $211.12: 52.8M shares off-exchange (48% of that session's volume), -5.1% from price.
- Week of Sep 14 - $215.16: 200.7M shares off-exchange that week, -3.3% from price.
Right now the nearest level below is $219.77 (Sep 18).
Behind the trade (between the stop and the trigger): $219.77, $218.94, $214.76, $212.47, $211.12.
Latest published data: Sep 18.
Options flow
Instead of listing every big print, this shows only the contract (or two) that backs the long idea. To qualify it has to be one of the highly unusual prints (expiring within 3 months, volume at least 3x open interest, at least $250K in premium; 60 contracts checked), and be a call bought at the ask (never sold at the bid), worth at least $1M of premium and not deep in the money. Of those, the soonest expiry is taken first, then the largest.
- $20.6M marked at today's price - $220.00 call expiring Sep 21 (same-day expiry), bought at the ask, 10x open interest (opening), 1.1% in the money. About $11.3M was actually paid, at an average fill of $1.65, with 79% of the contracts filling at the ask.
- $6.2M marked at today's price - $222.50 call expiring Sep 21 (same-day expiry), bought at the ask, 9x open interest (opening), at the money. About $3.3M was actually paid, at an average fill of $0.81, with 80% of the contracts filling at the ask.
That backs the long idea: a call bought at the ask is usually a bet that the stock rises. One print cannot show intent, so treat it as one input, not a guarantee.
For context, calls are 73% of the last session's options volume in the Sep 21 expiry (put/call ratio 0.36).
## Catalysts and news
What just happened
- Sep 20 - Nvidia boss rejects AI extinction fears as 'doomsday narratives' - BBC (BBC)
- Sep 20 - Prediction: Nvidia's Revenue Growth Will Drive Shares to $400 Next Year (Nasdaq)
- Sep 20 - Coinbase Files To Bring Single-Stock Perpetual Futures To US Market (NewsBTC)
- Sep 20 - Why CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, SentinelOne, and Other Cybersecurity Stocks Surged This Week (Nasdaq)
What is coming
- Earnings Nov 17 (after the close), 58 days away. The stock's typical move the day after earnings is 3.3% (median of the last 7).
- Thu Sep 24, 8:30 AM ET - Unemployment Claims (medium impact; forecast 201K, previous 196K)
- Fri Sep 25, 10:00 AM ET - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (medium impact; forecast 47.5, previous 47.8)
- Fri Sep 25, 10:00 AM ET - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (medium impact; previous 4.6%)
Headlines are shown as published; the site does not judge whether they help or hurt. News can move price against a chart plan, and that is what the stop is for.
Watch-outs
- History on this chart: from a spot like this the trend reversed 60% of the time (20 cases). That argues against the bias.
- The call wall ($225.00) sits between the trigger and the target, so expect price to slow or react there.
- Structure: a close below $189.80 would flip the weekly trend the other way (a change of character).
- The idea is wrong if price trades below $208.93.
Beginner notes
- Long / short: Long means buying, to profit if price rises. Short means selling first, to profit if price falls.
- RVOL (relative volume): A day's volume compared with the stock's normal. 1.0x is normal, 2.0x is double.
- Trigger: The price that has to trade before the idea is live. Until it prints, nothing is confirmed.
- Stop: The price where the idea is wrong. You leave there so a bad guess stays small.
- Target: Where the plan takes profit.
- R:R (reward-to-risk): How much the plan aims to make for every $1 it risks. 2 to 1 means $2 of target for $1 of stop.
- PDH / PDL / PWH / PWL: The previous day's high and low, and the previous week's high and low. Traders watch them because price often stalls, turns or breaks out at these prior extremes.
- GEX (gamma exposure): How much options dealers must buy or sell as price moves. Where it is large, price tends to stall or slow down.
- Largest net positive GEX: The strike with the most positive gamma. Dealer hedging there leans against moves, so price tends to stick or get pulled toward it.
- Largest net negative GEX: The strike with the most negative gamma. Dealer hedging there pushes moves along, so price can accelerate through it.
- Call wall: The strike with the most call positioning above price. It often acts like a ceiling.
- Put wall: The strike with the most put positioning below price. It often acts like a floor.
- Gamma flip: The price where dealer hedging changes character. Above it, hedging tends to calm price; below it, it can speed moves up.
- Dark pool level: A price where a lot of shares traded away from the public exchanges. Each level here is that session's volume-weighted average off-exchange price. Big off-exchange prints often act as support or resistance.
- Put/call ratio: Puts traded divided by calls traded. Under 1.0 means more calls than puts.
- Volume vs open interest: Open interest is how many contracts already exist. When today's volume is several times that, most of it is new positioning, which is why it counts as unusual.
- Block / sweep / opening: A block is one very large order. A sweep is an order split across exchanges to fill fast. Opening means it adds a new position rather than closing an old one.
- BOS / CHoCH: A break of structure (BOS) is a close through the last swing in the trend's direction, so the trend continues. A change of character (CHoCH) is a close through the protective level against it, so the trend flips.
$KO — Long bias · Daily
medium convictionData as of Sun Sep 20, 9:28 PM ET
Not a financial advisor. For education only — not financial advice.
$KO (Coca-Cola) last traded at $88.21 (+0.17% vs the prior close). The market is closed for the weekend, so these are the last session's prices (read Sun Sep 20, 9:28 PM ET).
Bias: LONG (looking to buy) - the data leans toward a move up. Evidence count: 5 for, 1 against, conviction medium. That counts the evidence; it is not a forecast.
The setup
Setup: 2-1 FORMING (2-1-?) on the daily chart. As Stratify's lesson "The 2-1-2, both ways" puts it: A push, a coil, then a break — with or against what came before.
Why long
- The daily trend is up (since Jan 14): higher highs and higher lows.
- The weekly trend is up.
- The monthly trend is up.
- Calls are 74% of options volume in the nearest expiry (Sep 25).
- Volume is 1.89x normal (RVOL), so more people are behind the moves.
The plan
Wait for price to trade above $88.28. Stop at $87.52 ($0.76 of risk per share). Target $90.36 (+2.4%, about 2.7 to 1). The stop is 0.9% from the trigger. Checkpoints on the way: $88.96 and $89.78.
Until the trigger prints, nothing is confirmed. The stop is where the idea is wrong; if price gets there, the plan is over. This is a daily setup, so expect it to play out over the next session or two.
If you would rather not chase the break, the OTE pullback zone $86.70 to $87.95 is the better entry - but only with extra confirmation such as an order block, a fair value gap or a liquidity sweep inside it.
Prior day and prior week levels
These are the extremes of the previous session and the previous week. Price often stalls, turns or breaks out at them.
- PDH $88.28 - the high of the last completed session (Sep 18), +0.1% from price.
- PDL $87.52 - the low of that session, -0.8% from price.
- PWH $90.36 - the high of the last completed week (the week of Sep 14 to Sep 18), +2.4% from price.
- PWL $87.51 - the low of that week, -0.8% from price.
Price ($88.21) is inside the previous day's range and inside last week's range. In this plan, the trigger ($88.28) sits at PDH, and the stop ($87.52) sits at PDL and PWL.
Options positioning (GEX)
- Expiry shown: Sep 25 (5 days out) - the options expiry that matches a daily setup.
- Largest net positive: $89.00 ($11.0M of gamma, +0.9% from price) - hedging here leans against moves, so price tends to stick or be pulled toward it.
- Largest net negative: $87.00 (-$1.2M of gamma, -1.4% from price) - hedging here pushes moves along, so price can speed up through it.
- Call wall $89.00 (+0.9% from price) - often a ceiling.
- Put wall $87.00 (-1.4% from price) - often a floor.
- Gamma flip $88.14 - price is above it, so hedging tends to calm price and swings are smaller.
- Priced-in move: the options expiring Sep 25 imply about $0.7133 (0.8%) either way.
Dark pool levels
Dark pools are trades matched away from the public exchanges. Each level below is the average price (volume-weighted) of that session's off-exchange volume; heavy prints there often act as support or resistance.
- Sep 18 - $87.92: 3.4M shares off-exchange (29% of that session's volume), -0.3% from price.
- Sep 17 - $87.98: 3.2M shares off-exchange (42% of that session's volume), -0.3% from price.
- Sep 16 - $88.20: 4.1M shares off-exchange (46% of that session's volume), -0.0% from price.
- Sep 15 - $88.46: 4.1M shares off-exchange (43% of that session's volume), +0.3% from price.
- Sep 14 - $89.26: 4.7M shares off-exchange (43% of that session's volume), +1.2% from price.
- Week of Sep 14 - $88.43: 19.5M shares off-exchange that week, +0.2% from price.
Right now the nearest level above price is $88.46 (Sep 15) and the nearest level below is $88.20 (Sep 16).
Behind the trade (between the stop and the trigger): $87.92, $87.98, $88.20.
Ahead of the trade (between the trigger and the target): $88.46, $89.26, so expect price to react there.
Latest published data: Sep 18.
Options flow
Instead of listing every big print, this shows only the contract (or two) that backs the long idea. To qualify it has to be one of the highly unusual prints (expiring within 3 months, volume at least 3x open interest, at least $250K in premium; 17 contracts checked), and be a call bought at the ask (never sold at the bid), worth at least $1M of premium and not deep in the money. Of those, the soonest expiry is taken first, then the largest.
No unusual call print bought at the ask clears that bar right now, so no contract is shown as backing the long idea.
For context, calls are 74% of the last session's options volume in the Sep 25 expiry (put/call ratio 0.36).
## Catalysts and news
What just happened
- Sep 20 - The Ultimate Dividend Growth stock to Buy With $1,000 Right Now. (Nasdaq)
- Sep 20 - Prediction: Here's What a $15,000 Investment in Coca-Cola Stock Could Be Worth in 5 Years (Nasdaq)
- Sep 20 - [History Says This Is the Amount of Yearly Dividend Income a $25,000 Investment in Coca-Cola Stock Could Generate By 2036.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/20/history-says-this-is-the-amount-of-yearly-dividend/?source=robinhood&utm_source=robinhood&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=470fa7ac-b6d0-459f-a222-81f0fabef549) (The Motley Fool)
- Sep 19 - [The S&P 500 Yields Just 1.1% While 10-Year Treasury Yields Have Surged to 5%. This Dividend Stock Provides a Middle Ground for Long-Term Investors.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/19/the-sp-500-yields-just-11-while-10-year-treasury-y/?source=robinhood&utm_source=robinhood&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=0ed374b5-6548-4a7f-a525-e4d9d2218994) (The Motley Fool)
What is coming
- Earnings Oct 20 (before the open), 30 days away. The stock's typical move the day after earnings is 3.9% (median of the last 7).
- Thu Sep 24, 8:30 AM ET - Unemployment Claims (medium impact; forecast 201K, previous 196K)
- Fri Sep 25, 10:00 AM ET - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (medium impact; forecast 47.5, previous 47.8)
- Fri Sep 25, 10:00 AM ET - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (medium impact; previous 4.6%)
Headlines are shown as published; the site does not judge whether they help or hurt. News can move price against a chart plan, and that is what the stop is for.
Watch-outs
- Price ($88.21) is below this month's open ($89.59, 1.5% lower). That argues against the bias.
- The call wall ($89.00) sits between the trigger and the target, so expect price to slow or react there.
- On this chart, from a spot like this, the trend continued 41% of the time (58 cases) - close to a coin flip, so respect the stop.
- Structure: a close below $85.16 would flip the daily trend the other way (a change of character).
- The idea is wrong if price trades below $87.52.
Beginner notes
- Long / short: Long means buying, to profit if price rises. Short means selling first, to profit if price falls.
- RVOL (relative volume): A day's volume compared with the stock's normal. 1.0x is normal, 2.0x is double.
- Trigger: The price that has to trade before the idea is live. Until it prints, nothing is confirmed.
- Stop: The price where the idea is wrong. You leave there so a bad guess stays small.
- Target: Where the plan takes profit.
- R:R (reward-to-risk): How much the plan aims to make for every $1 it risks. 2 to 1 means $2 of target for $1 of stop.
- OTE (optimal trade entry): The zone 62% to 79% of the way back through the last swing, where pullbacks often stall. It only counts with extra confirmation.
- PDH / PDL / PWH / PWL: The previous day's high and low, and the previous week's high and low. Traders watch them because price often stalls, turns or breaks out at these prior extremes.
- GEX (gamma exposure): How much options dealers must buy or sell as price moves. Where it is large, price tends to stall or slow down.
- Largest net positive GEX: The strike with the most positive gamma. Dealer hedging there leans against moves, so price tends to stick or get pulled toward it.
- Largest net negative GEX: The strike with the most negative gamma. Dealer hedging there pushes moves along, so price can accelerate through it.
- Call wall: The strike with the most call positioning above price. It often acts like a ceiling.
- Put wall: The strike with the most put positioning below price. It often acts like a floor.
- Gamma flip: The price where dealer hedging changes character. Above it, hedging tends to calm price; below it, it can speed moves up.
- Dark pool level: A price where a lot of shares traded away from the public exchanges. Each level here is that session's volume-weighted average off-exchange price. Big off-exchange prints often act as support or resistance.
- Put/call ratio: Puts traded divided by calls traded. Under 1.0 means more calls than puts.
- BOS / CHoCH: A break of structure (BOS) is a close through the last swing in the trend's direction, so the trend continues. A change of character (CHoCH) is a close through the protective level against it, so the trend flips.
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